OMNI WAR WATCH WEDNESDAY, #110, JANUARY 25, 2023
Hobson. “A failure of U.S. policy. It didn't have to be this way.”
Reading Abelow’s How the West Brought War to Ukraine.
“B61-12: new U.S. nuclear warheads coming to Europe.”
World Beyond War FourActions for Peace.
Art Hobson, “A failure of U.S. policy. It didn't have to be this way.” NWADG, 3 January 2023.
The war in Ukraine drags on. Russia and Ukraine have each suffered more than 100,000 soldiers wounded and dead well before their time. 40,000 civilians are dead and 15 to 30 million displaced, in a nation of 44 million. [1] People are freezing and 18 million will need humanitarian assistance in the near future--an inevitable consequence of the horror of war. [2] Ukraine has suffered over $100 billion infrastructure damage, [3] and global economic losses are now about $550 billion. [4] The human suffering behind these numbers is enormous.
It didn't have to be this way. Ukrainians could have kept their freedom while remaining at peace.
Consider: What if the tables were turned? Suppose Russia had formed a hostile military alliance with Mexico, Cuba, and 28 other nations and placed threatening missiles near our borders. Would the U.S. have agreed this was within the sovereign rights of these nations? Clearly not. As we saw during the Cuban Missile Crisis, any violation of our security claim (the Monroe Doctrine) over the entire Western Hemisphere is considered reason for war, including even nuclear war.
Yet since the fall of the USSR, the U.S. has acted as though Russia has no such security concerns about hostile forces stationed near their borders. Given Western invasions of Russia by Napoleon in the 19th century and by Hitler in the 20th century, and given NATO's spread into Eastern Europe, it's foolish to ignore these concerns.
What will happen if, as America hopes, Russia begins to lose this war? The U.S. Director of National Intelligence, testifying to the Senate in May, said Putin might use nuclear weapons in case of "an existential threat to his regime and to Russia, from his perspective." This could occur if "he perceives he is losing." Yet this is precisely the aim of U.S. policy. [5]. Thus U.S. ignorance of Russian concerns drives us directly toward nuclear war between superpowers.
The U.S. and NATO have made many moves that threaten Russian security, including withdrawing unilaterally from the Antiballistic Missile Treaty, placing ABM systems in newly joined NATO nations, and withdrawing unilaterally from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty. The INF Treaty withdrawal increases Russian vulnerability to a U.S. first strike launched from near their borders.
NATO has conducted countless military exercises near Russia's border, and has armed and trained the Ukrainian military and held joint training exercises inside Ukraine. Would we permit analogous military cooperation between Russia and Mexico?
The most severe Western threat to Russia has been NATO expansion pressing toward Russia's border, while disregarding assurances previously given to Russia. US foreign policy experts have warned for decades it was a major error to expand NATO eastward. For just one example, George Kennan was arguably the most important diplomat and USSR/Russia policy expert from 1950 until his death in 2005. He is best known as the father of the containment policy toward USSR expansion during the Cold War.
In 1997, following the fall of the USSR, the U.S. Senate ratified NATO's eastward expansion. Kennan responded: "I think it is the beginning of a new cold war. ...The Russians will gradually react quite adversely and it will affect their policies. ...It is a tragic mistake. ...No one was threatening anybody else. This expansion would make the Founding Fathers turn over in their graves. Don't people understand? Our differences in the cold war were with the Soviet Communist regime. And now we're turning our backs on the very people who mounted the greatest bloodless revolution in history to remove that Regime." [6]
America tries too hard to run the world. We regard the present situation as an existential battle to save democracy from autocratic regimes in China and Russia. But neither China nor Russia is out to run the world, although both want military security near their own borders, just as we do. Furthermore, there is an element of U.S. hypocrisy in all this: Before criticizing autocracy abroad, we should look at who wields power in America and to what end. Arguably, America is an oligarchy run by the rich.
In addition to being pushy, America is over-armed and militaristic. Grotesquely, our military budget exceeds that of the next nine nations combined, and comprises 39% of the world's military spending. [7]
Although Russia should not have invaded Ukraine, the issues involved in this conflict go far beyond the invasion. For readers who might want to learn about these realities, a good place to start is the short book by Benjamin Abelow titled "How the West Brought War to Ukraine."
References:
[1] https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/10/world/europe/ukraine-russia-war-casualties-deaths.html.
2]. https://www.voanews.com/a/un-half-of-ukraine-energy-infrastructure-destroyed-by-russian-attacks/6874897.html
[3] https://www.forbes.com/sites/madelinehalpert/2022/08/02/war-has-caused-108-billion-in-damage-to-ukraines-infrastructure-study-finds/?sh=7ac8b00823e5
[4] https://kse.ua/about-the-school/news/zbitki-naneseni-infrastrukturi-ukrayini-v-hodi-viyni-skladayut-mayzhe-63-mlrd/
[5[ Avril Haines, testimony, 10 May 2022, <https://www.c-span.org/video/?c5014371/us-believes-russian-president-putin-preparing-prolonged-conflict ahobson@uark.edu
DICK’S NOTES ON READING HOW THE WEST BROUGHT WAR TO UKRAINE 1-17-23
The book could be a college textbook example of concise, lucid, logical writing. Introduction. US motive for the war: to cripple the Russian military; US/Western narrative justifying the motive: Putin “an insatiable expansionist.” Russian response: high alert and nuclear warning. Abelow: US narrative incorrect, invalidating the motive and the “30-year history of provocations directed at Russia.” He then lists the 8 “key Western provocations” discussed in the book. And finally he epitomizes the subject of each of the eight chapters. All is transparent: he tells us what his subject is and how he is going to present it.
Chaps. 1 and 2 give the provocations. “Chapter 1 chronologically surveys Western provocations of Russia during the period 1990-2014. Chapter 2 extends this survey to the beginning of Russia’s February 2022 invasion.” But because he knows that fact-based reason is not necessarily irresistible to all, he adds six chapters to confirm his thesis chapters. “ Chapter 3 asks how the United States would react if ‘the shoe were on the other foot’—that is, if Russia acted toward the United States as the West has acted toward Russia.” Chapter 4, “Russian Concerns About a U.S. First Strike,” explains why the US withdrawal from the 1987 intermediate-range nuclear missile treaty disturbs Russians so much. :Etc. (see last p. of Intro.).
The largest, best financed propaganda machine in the world (Pentagon, White House, Congress, think tanks, corporate media, corporations) has made its case, but I believe it is flawed based upon some 500 articles and 2 books that refute it. To all who claim to be peacemakers (prevent wars, stop them, lift up the victims), our case is abundantly clear and confirmed, so let’s get going, choose our peace action from the dozens advocated in the anthologies, to stop this awful carnage and destruction. –Dick
“B61-12: new U.S. nuclear warheads coming to Europe.”
Editor. Mronline.org (1-29-23).
In December, the United States is bringing new nuclear warheads to Europe. The B61-12 warhead is a more advanced warhead from the ones currently deployed in Belgium, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands and Turkey.
[The US War Party assured the Russians it was purely defensive. –D]
WBW: Four strengthening things you can do for peace in the United States: (Put these on your refrig. door. Tell your friends to tell.)
1. Email Congress: Move the Money from the Military to Social and Environmental Programs!
2. Ask President Biden to Sign the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons
3. Celebrate the Banning of Nukes on January 22!
4. Rally Against War in Washington D.C. on February 19!
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