OMNI
TEMPERATURE, HEAT, CLIMATE CATASTROPHE #3
Compiled by Dick Bennett
FOR A CULTURE of PEACE, JUSTICE, and ECOLOGY FOR ALL SPECIES AND THE EARTH
CONTENTS: GLOBAL TEMPERATURE, HEAT, CLIMATE CATASTROPHE, CHAOS #3, August 29, 2020
CONTENTS
ECOCIDE: THE FACTS AND WARNINGS OF RISING TEMPERATURE, ITS CAUSES AND CONSEQUENCES
Mark Lynas, Our Final Warning: Six Degrees of Climate Emergency. 2020.
Art Hobson, Physics Professor
United Nations Foundation
Temperature spike: Earth ties record high heat May reading. Associated Press. 6-12-20
3.5 billion people may face ‘unlivable’ heat in 50 years. Monthly Review. 5-14-20.
One billion people will live in insufferable heat within 50 years – study. The Guardian. May 5, 2020.
The parched West is heading into a global warming-fueled megadrought that could last for centuries. Monthly Review. 4-19-20.
Heat warnings across US as climate experts warn of spike in very hot days. The Guardian. 7-19-20.
Record high US temperatures outpace record lows two to one, study finds. The Guardian. 3-19-19.
What is the polar vortex- and how is it linked to climate change? The Guardian. 1-31-19.
Heatwave seems to make manmade climate change real for Americans. The Guardian. 7-11-18.
RESISTANCE
Extinction Rebellion Global Support. 8-14-20.
TEXTS
ECOCIDE: WARNINGS OF RISING TEMPERATURE, ITS CAUSES AND CONSEQUENCES
Our Final Warning: Six Degrees of Climate Emergency By Mark Lynas.
On Sale: June 30, 2020 $27.99 Now: $22.39Spend $49 on print products and get FREE shipping at HC.com
publisher’s Description
This book must not be ignored. It really is our final warning.
Mark Lynas delivers a vital account of the future of our earth, and our civilisation, if current rates of global warming persist. And it’s only looking worse.
We are living in a climate emergency. But how much worse could it get? Will civilisation collapse? Are we already past the point of no return? What kind of future can our children expect? Rigorously cataloguing the very latest climate science, Mark Lynas explores the course we have set for Earth over the next century and beyond. Degree by terrifying degree, he charts the likely consequences of global heating and the ensuing climate catastrophe.
At one degree– the world we are already living in – vast wildfires scorch California and Australia, while monster hurricanes devastate coastal cities. At two degrees the Arctic ice cap melts away, and coral reefs disappear from the tropics. At three, the world begins to run out of food, threatening millions with starvation. At four, large areas of the globe are too hot for human habitation, erasing entire nations and turning billions into climate refugees. At five,the planet is warmer than for 55 million years, while at six degrees a mass extinction of unparalleled proportions sweeps the planet, even raising the threat of the end of all life on Earth.
These escalating consequences can still be avoided, but time is running out. We must largely stop burning fossil fuels within a decade if we are to save the coral reefs and the Arctic. If we fail, then we risk crossing tipping points that could push global climate chaos out of humanity’s control.
This book must not be ignored. It really is our final warning.
Global warming
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According to a 2-page article in Science magazine 24 July 2020, climate science has achieved a breakthrough of sorts. Earth's “climate sensitivity” is defined as the likely temperature increase that will occur due to a doubling of CO2 in the atmosphere. To put this in perspective, such a doubling (from pre-industrial 280 to 560 parts CO2 molecules per million atmospheric molecules) is expected around 2060. Climate sensitivity has been estimated many times, beginning in 1979, and each time it has turned out to be 1.5 to 4.5 Celsius degrees (2.7 to 8.1 Fahrenheit degrees). The “range of uncertainty” is a full 3 degrees Celsius (1.5 to 4.5) and is quite wide, leading to uncertain estimates of future temperatures. Now ultra-careful new estimates, based on lots of new research, have significantly reduced this range of uncertainty. The new climate sensitivity is 2.6 to 3.9 Celsius degrees. This means that the “moderate” estimates of “only” 1.5 to 2.6 degrees have very little likelihood of happening. A warming of at least 2.6 degrees is highly likely, and it could plausibly go as high as a warming of 3.9 degrees (7 degrees Fahrenheit—that’s a LOT). This is bad news, and it’s predicted by 2060 (unless we get busy and reduce emissions fast). The people who thought this would be mild were wrong wrong wrong. The lesson is to always prepare for the worst when it comes to preserving the environment from human technology.
For statistics buffs, the range 2.6 to 3.9 degrees C is the “66% confidence interval,” i.e. there is a 66% likelihood that the temperature increase will be within this range. The article also gives the “90% confidence interval” as 2.3 to 4.7 degrees Celsius.
Peace – Art
Art a day later wrote this emphatic addendum:
Dick -
I think you are referring to my message yesterday. The bottom line prediction is that, if carbon in the atmosphere doubles by 2060 (as expected), the temperature will be 2.6 to 3.9 Celsius degrees warmer than it was in pre-industrial times. That translates to 4.7 to 7.0 degrees Fahrenheit. Today, the temp has already risen 1.8 degrees above pre-industrial times, so the prediction is that temps will rise an additional 2.9 to 5.2 degrees Fahrenheit. Even 2.9 additional degrees is a LOT! All presumed “moderate” forecasts are thus rubbish.
USA’s idiotic use of English units (including degrees Fahrenheit) is part of the problem in messages like this. Only USA, Liberia, and Burma still use it. Stupid Americans!
Cheers - Art
United Nations Foundation
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Temperature spike: Earth ties record high heat May reading
Parts of Africa, Asia, western Europe, South and Central America had record warmth.
By ASSOCIATED PRESS 06/12/2020 03:42 PM EDT
Also appeared in NADG (6-13-20) without attribution.
Earth's temperature spiked to tie a record high for May, U.S. [World and ?] meteorologists reported Friday.
Last month the global average temperature was 60.3 degrees, tying 2016 for the hottest May in 141 years of record keeping, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
That's 1.7 degrees higher than the 20th century average for Earth.
Temperature on land set a heat record, while ocean temperatures ranked second.
Parts of Africa, Asia, western Europe, South and Central America had record warmth.
“We continue to warm on the long term and in any given month we're likely to be knocking on the door, close to a record in the era that we're in,” NOAA climate monitoring chief Deke Arndt said.
The last seven Mays, from 2014 to 2020, have been the seven warmest Mays on record.
This past spring was the second hottest on record, behind 2016. And this year so far is the second hottest five-month start of a year.
Arndt said it's highly likely that 2020 will be one of the two hottest years since 1880.
3.5 billion people may face ‘unlivable’ heat in 50 years.
Posted May 14, 2020 by Ian Angus
Originally published: Climate and Capitalism (May 9, 2020)
Mronline.org (5-15-20).
Every degree of global warming will push a billion people out of the human survival zone. | more…
(Note to Hannah 8-28-20)
One billion people will live in insufferable heat within 50 years – study.
Human cost of climate crisis will hit harder and sooner than previously believed, research reveals.
Jonathan Watts The Guardian. Tue 5 May 2020
An Indian farmer walks across the bed of a pond that has dried out during a water crisis. Photograph: Sanjay Kanojia/AFP via Getty Images
The human cost of the climate crisis will hit harder, wider and sooner than previously believed, according to a study that shows a billion people will either be displaced or forced to endure insufferable heat for every additional 1C rise in the global temperature.
In a worst-case scenario of accelerating emissions, areas currently home to a third of the world’s population will be as hot as the hottest parts of the Sahara within 50 years, the paper warns. Even in the most optimistic outlook, 1.2 billion people will fall outside the comfortable “climate niche” in which humans have thrived for at least 6,000 years.
The authors of the study said they were “floored” and “blown away” by the findings because they had not expected our species to be so vulnerable.
“The numbers are flabbergasting. I literally did a double take when I first saw them, ” Tim Lenton, of Exeter University, said. “I’ve previously studied climate tipping points, which are usually considered apocalyptic. But this hit home harder. This puts the threat in very human terms.”
There will be more change in the next 50 years than in the past 6,000 years
Instead of looking at climate change as a problem of physics or economics, the paper, published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, examines how it affects the human habitat.
The vast majority of humanity has always lived in regions where the average annual temperatures are around 6C (43F) to 28C (82F), which is ideal for human health and food production. But this sweet spot is shifting and shrinking as a result of manmade global heating, which drops more people into what the authors describe as “near unliveable” extremes.
Humanity is particularly sensitive because we are concentrated on land – which is warming faster than the oceans – and because most future population growth will be in already hot regions of Africa and Asia. As a result of these demographic factors, the average human will experience a temperature increase of 7.5C when global temperatures reach 3C, which is forecast towards the end of this century.
At that level, about 30% of the world’s population would live in extreme heat – defined as an average temperature of 29C (84F). These conditions are extremely rare outside the most scorched parts of the Sahara, but with global heating of 3C they are projected to envelop 1.2 billion people in India, 485 million in Nigeria and more than 100 million in each of Pakistan, Indonesia and Sudan.
This would add enormously to migration pressures and pose challenges to food production systems.
“I think it is fair to say that average temperatures over 29C are unliveable. You’d have to move or adapt. But there are limits to adaptation. If you have enough money and energy, you can use air conditioning and fly in food and then you might be OK. But that is not the case for most people,” said one of the lead authors of the study, Prof Marten Scheffer of Wageningen University.
An ecologist by training, Scheffer said the study started as a thought-experiment. He had previously studied the climate distribution of rainforests and savanna and wondered what the result would be if he applied the same methodology to humans. “We know that most creatures’ habitats are limited by temperature. For example, penguins are only found in cold water and corals only in warm water. But we did not expect humans to be so sensitive. We think of ourselves as very adaptable because we use clothes, heating and air conditioning. But, in fact, the vast majority of people live – and have always lived – inside a climate niche that is now moving as never before.”
We were blown away by the magnitude,” he said. “There will be more change in the next 50 years than in the past 6,000 years.”
The authors said their findings should spur policymakers to accelerate emission cuts and work together to cope with migration because each degree of warming that can be avoided will save a billion people from falling out of humanity’s climate niche.
“Clearly we will need a global approach to safeguard our children against the potentially enormous social tensions the projected change could invoke,” another of the authors, Xu Chi of Nanjing University, said.
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The following 4 items are from The Guardian magazine
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/jan/22/climate-change-concern-americans-poll
Heat warnings across US as climate experts warn of spike in very hot days. Published:19 Jul 2019. Heat warnings across US as climate experts warn of spike in very hot days
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Record high US temperatures outpace record lows two to one, study finds. Published:19 Mar 2019. Record high US temperatures outpace record lows two to one, study finds.
What is the polar vortex – and how is it linked to climate change?
Published:31 Jan 2019. What is the polar vortex – and how is it linked to climate change?
Heatwave seems to make manmade climate change real for Americans. Published:11 Jul 2018. Heatwave seems to make manmade climate change real for Americans
$306bn in one year: US bill for natural disasters smashes record.
Published:8 Jan 2018. $306bn in one year: US bill for natural disasters smashes record
A third of the world now faces deadly heatwaves as result of climate change. Published:19 Jun 2018. A third of the world now faces deadly heatwaves as result of climate change
US weather 'preferable' for most thanks to climate change; but there's a catch. Published:20 Apr 2016. US weather 'preferable' for most thanks to climate change; but there's a catch
Climate change makes past five-year period the warmest on record: WMO. Published:25 Nov 2018.
RESISTANCE
I found no articles specifically on the fight against rising temperatures. A google search 8-24-20 found articles on “resistance to climate change” dating from 2014 to 2019.
Understanding Resistance to Climate Change Resistance
pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov › ... Understanding Resistance to Climate Change Resistance. Int J Aging Hum Dev. 2014 Dec;80(1):76-86.
The challenging politics of climate change - Brookings Institution
www.brookings.edu › research › the-challenging-politi...
Sep 23, 2019 - What will it take to effectively fight climate change? ... Republican resistance on this issue is one but not the only reason why.
It's In Our Hands Now: Localizing Resistance to Fight Climate ...
www.nonviolent-conflict.org › blog_post › its-in-our-h...
Jul 23, 2019 - The problem of climate change. In a special report by the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) last October.
From the frontlines of climate change resistance | New ...
newint.org › features › 2018/10/26 › frontlines-climate...
Oct 26, 2018 - Hoda Baraka on the climate action movements working to end fossil fuel extraction. People protest against President Donald Trump'.
The makings of a climate change resistance in the Pacific ...earthjournalism.net › stories › the-makings-of-a-climate...
Jun 7, 2019 - The Pacific Islands are bearing the brunt of rising temperatures and sea levels caused by climate change. But some of these small-island ...
A year of resistance: How youth protests shaped the discussion
theconversation.com › a-year-of-resistance-how-youth-...
Dec 19, 2019 - The actions of today's leaders on climate change will determine how much more vocal youth will become in 2020.
Climate Resistance – Challenging Climate Orthodoxy
Feb 12, 2016 - But second, as science comprehension goes up, so does the perception that there is scientific consensus on climate change—no matter what ...
Editorial: U.S. resistance to climate change could change fast ...www.sfchronicle.com › opinion › editorials › articleDec 2, 2019 - The stakes couldn't be higher for the U.N. climate change conference in Madrid. Will the world — and the United States — take action in time?
And here’s an article from a few days ago.
From: Extinction Rebellion Global Support <newsletter-no-reply@rebellion.earth>
Date: Fri, Aug 14, 2020 at 12:26 PM
Subject: Heading for Extinction
To: <j.dick.bennett@gmail.com>
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OMNI TEMPERATURE NEWSLETTERS
#1 June 28, 2019
https://jamesrichardbennett.blogspot.com/2019/08/temperature-heat-climate-newsletter-1.html
#2 January 20, 2020 https://jamesrichardbennett.blogspot.com/2020/01/omni-rising-temperature-newsletter-2.html
Contents of #2: A Sample of Publications Mainly During 2019
Dick. OMNI August 2013 Climate Forum’s Predictions. \
Kendrick Frazier. “Hot Month, Hot Year, Hot Planet: Absorbing The Latest Climate News.” Skeptical Inquirer. Nov./Dec.2019.
WMO warns of record heat levels. UN Wire. 12-4-19.
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. On the Green New Deal. 11-27-19
Jeffrey St Clair. Big Heat: Earth on the Brink (Google search). 2019.
UN Wire. 12-20-19.
Nancy Shute. Science News. August 6, 2019.
Monthly Review. Why Marx matters: capitalism and the Metabolic Rift. 8-15-19.
Jordan Davidson. Human Activity Caused Latest European Heat Wave, Scientists Say. EcoWatch , August 5, 2019.
Monthly Review. “Killer Heat in the United States: Climate Choices and the
Future of Dangerously Hot Days.” 8-3-19.
Monthly Review.For a new world. 7-28-19.
The Nation. Consequences of Warming: Creatures, wasps, snakes, Lyme
disease, dengue fever, pitch pine beetles. July 2019.
Bill McKibben - 350 Action. On Green New Deal. 2019.
Somini Sengupta. “A Heat Wave Tests Europe’s Defenses. Expect More.” NYT. July 2019
Rhoda Feng. “Outdoor Workers in Every Florida County Endangered by Heat.” Public Citizen News. Nov./Dec. 2018.
Monthly Review.“Burnt Workers Are the Newest Wave of Climate Casualty.” 7-5-19.
Heat Index, What It Is, Note and Google Search. 6-30-19.
END OMNIGLOBAL TEMPERATURE NEWSLETTER #3